Why It Would Be Easy For Ruto To Become President

By Ochieng’ Maddo

It came after much ado and bravado. It was also a propaganda tool for besmirching political opponents. But Deputy President William Ruto’s appearance at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in person for the hearing of his crimes against humanity case is a big leap into political future. Just as President Uhuru Kenyatta stole the show at a previous appearance in the same court to score political cards against Raila Odinga, Ruto is utilizing the chance to widen his political base while gaining international recognition and admiration. However, the fact that ICC can turn to be his hangman’s noose can not be ignored.

In Kenya, Ruto is seen as a hero in many quarters; a man capable of facing adversities of whatever magnitude. Unlike his co-accused, President Uhuru Kenyatta, who has and is still dithering on whether he would attend his hearings in person, via a video link, or none at all, Ruto is an astute politician who has exploited the ICC issue for political mileage. He is trending on a global media platform and at this rate, if the cases proceed even without his presence in the chambers, Ruto has already demonstrated to Kenyans and the world at large his respect for the rule of law. If he eventually wins the case, and before 2017, William Ruto would stand the best chance to become the next president.

Why is this hypothesis plausible? Some political analysts believe that the DP is smarter than his boss in many respects including politics, leadership and performance in office. Even as a cabinet minister under President Moi, Ruto did his job in Home Affairs portfolio with gusto. His critics then observed that he was ruthless and sycophantic.  In the grand coalition government of President Kibaki and PM Raila Odinga, his performance in Agriculture and Higher Education dockets were rated highly, save for the corruption case in Agriculture docket which almost plummeted his reputation through a vote of no confidence in parliament.

But he is always shrewd. At that point when many though he was vanquished, he used his political wit and connections to successfully wade through those virulent muddy waters. Later on in 2012 when he was courted by Uhuru Kenyata and Raila Odinga for a coalition deal, he thought hard. After making a firm decision to team up with the former, he played things out to appear as if he was consulting his community and seeking their blessing on the same. During the campaigns, he consolidated a formidable support for his new URP party and managed to contain massive fallout after hotly contested nominations which destabilised TNA, dented UDF and WDP and crippled ODM. The fact that he astutely navigated the ODM’s minefields in his path to URP, until eventually pulling out with his troupe en masse at an opportune time is an indicator that he is a genius at political calculus.

Even though the DP is deeply emotional and can’t help expressing that by shading tears publicly, he does not display tantrums on public podia. Instead, the charismatic environmental scientist cuts the image of an eloquent orator, capable of pulling out punchy quotes to rebut his opponents’ salvos overtly disproportionately. He charmed Jubilee audiences at campaign rallies with his trademark sneer during the last election, and can do better for himself in future.

Analysts have described him, rightly though, as over ambitious politician with eyes steadily focused on the presidency. He is feared and loved in equal measure. In fact, it is that fear, coupled with the chapter of the constitution on the executive that recognizes presidency as president and deputy, that still keep the dreaded clique from Mount Kenya from undermining his office. The DP may survive till 2017 to take a stab at the presidency.

There are many reasons why Ruto would be more electable than any other candidate including President Kenyatta in 2017. Kenyans have been incapable of dislodging themselves from the grip of Mount Kenya presidency. But they are tired of the same clique of people arrogating themselves every key government position as if government was their birth right. Only the gods of fate and circumstances have consistently conspired against the rest of Kenyans during elections. This can be explained from the way Raila Odinga has twice divided votes almost equally with Mount Kenya candidates. But Raila’s insiders point at some of his weaknesses which Ruto does not possess. They say he listens to so many  advisers including novices, then ends up acting as if he never heard anything from anyone. They claim he has on several occasions failed to seal perennial loopholes even after they are pointed out for him on time, which have eventually acted to his detriment.  Ruto does not have such tendencies. During the last election campaigns he derided Raila on having squandered some of the best opportunities in his way as Prime Minister for five years. Ruto’s way of exploiting his position in the Jubilee government can be seen in the way he is commanding power in the government. He has also began to make early forays in ODM strongholds.

One undoubted fact is that Ruto is the fulcrum of Jubilee Government. The man neither dink nor smoke. He is always awake and alert. The mind functions better in such a state. The Office of the Deputy President has so far managed to handle and resolve more critical crises including teachers strike, insecurity and the governors’ referendum push better than State House would have done. Moreover, the DP tackles most issues personally and directly as opposed to the president who is surrounded by bureaucratic henchmen who often misadvise him.

Ruto is quick to smell a rat. He is quick to act to salvage situations. He is good at gauging public mood and knows the boundaries of his statements and antics. He rarely blurts out irresponsibly, hence has rarely had to refute media reports attributed to him.

Ruto’s other strength lies in his solid support base. Whereas President Kenyatta’s TNA basically commands following in his greater Mount Kenya region, Ruto’s URP enjoys a broad base support across the pastoral communities, parts of northern Kenya and spatially at the Coast. He is also viewed more favourably among Raila and Mudavadi’s supporters than the president. He holds Jubilee together because his exit would paint Uhuru Kenyatta in a bad light, considering the “dark forces” fiasco involving Musalia Mudavadi who claimed he was short-changed by the Jubilee duo earlier this year.

His struggle to emerge from oblivion to national—and now international—limelight is also telling. Among the Big Five political heavyweights (Uhuru, Raila, Mudavadi, Kalonzo and himself), only him and Kalonzo are sons of nobodies. He is not an inheritor of a political throne. He has just been a ‘hyper’ when it comes to politics. His burning ambition began as soon as he graduated from university. Miguna Miguna notes in Peeling Back the Mask; A Quest for Justice in Kenya, that Dr Sally Kosgei was considering Ruto as a restless young man in early 1990s. He went ahead and dislodged the moneyed incumbent, Reuben Chesire, from Eldoret North seat in 1997.

Ruto is a wealthy man who is capable of effectively oiling the wheels of a vibrant campaign machinery. His nemeses have questioned how he amassed wealth at a tender age. He attributes his wealth to hard work. But (un)fortunately, average voters hero-worship such people. They believe rich men and women have a sixth sense for making money and therefore deserve to be leaders to do the same to the community. They are the ones referred to as “development conscious” leaders. Lastly, having aggressively supported Uhuru Kenyatta in 2002 and 2013 as well as Raila Odinga in 2007, Ruto has shown he can offer other people his support and deserves the right to be paid back.

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